SeriesMagCorrSyncOverlapThrough
Correlation
-52%
of values
In sync
49%
of periods
History
281
months · through 2026-04
These move opposite each other about 49% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~27% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Time Series
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently tighter than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
Aaa Corporate Bond Yield moves ~18 months before Fed Balance Sheet
Watch Aaa Corporate Bond Yield for an early read on Fed Balance Sheet.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
48.7%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-52%
Based on values
95% CI
-60% → -43%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
281 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,220
1,288
Normalized
1,220
1,288
Prepared
281
1,288
Aligned
281
281
Invalid removed
Explore
Top 5 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.
R²(i)
27.4%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
281
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-18 months
Correlation at this shift
-77%
+25% stronger than no-shift baseline
Aaa Corporate Bond Yield shifted 18 months later. Reads: "Does Fed Balance Sheet today line up with Aaa Corporate Bond Yield 18 months ago?"
263 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-52%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-18 months
-77%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+34%
60 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+27%
60 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-43%
129 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,007
A: 0 / B: 1007
Series A
Fed Balance Sheet
WALCL
FRED · 1,220 raw → 281 prepared
Series B
Aaa Corporate Bond Yield
AAA
FRED · 1,288 raw → 1,288 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0000
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
5.3006
Linear regression intercept.
Saved yesterday · ID: fred-aaa_fred-walcl_5y