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Correlation
of values
+42%
In sync
of periods
45%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-06
941
These move in the same direction about 45% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~18% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Aaa Corporate Bond Yield moves ~18 months before Unemployment Rate
Watch Aaa Corporate Bond Yield for an early read on Unemployment Rate.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
45%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+42%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
941 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
941
1,290
Normalized
941
1,290
Prepared
941
1,290
Aligned
941
941
Invalid removed
Likely range
R²(i)
18%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
941
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-18 months
Correlation at this shift
+51%
+9% stronger than no-shift baseline
Aaa Corporate Bond Yield shifted 18 months later. Reads: "Does Unemployment Rate today line up with Aaa Corporate Bond Yield 18 months ago?"
915 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+42%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-18 months
+51%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-9%
6 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
3 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-22%
7 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
349
A: 0 / B: 349
Series A
Unemployment Rate
UNRATE
FRED · 941 raw → 941 prepared
Series B
Aaa Corporate Bond Yield
AAA
FRED · 1,290 raw → 1,290 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
23
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.6871
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
2.3393
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-aaa_fred-unrate_monthly_5y