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Correlation
of values
-28%
In sync
of periods
52%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
600
These move in the same direction about 52% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~8% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
10Y-2Y Yield Spread moves ~18 months before Aaa Corporate Bond Yield
Watch 10Y-2Y Yield Spread for an early read on Aaa Corporate Bond Yield.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
51.6%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-28%
Based on values
95% CI
-35% → -20%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
600 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
12,501
1,289
Normalized
12,501
1,289
Prepared
601
1,289
Aligned
600
600
Invalid removed
R²(i)
7.7%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
600
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+18 months
Correlation at this shift
-39%
+11% stronger than no-shift baseline
Aaa Corporate Bond Yield shifted 18 months earlier. Reads: "Does 10Y-2Y Yield Spread today line up with Aaa Corporate Bond Yield 18 months from now?"
582 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-28%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+18 months
-39%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-29%
9 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+10%
17 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-69%
29 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
690
A: 1 / B: 689
Series A
10Y-2Y Yield Spread
T10Y2Y
FRED · 12,501 raw → 601 prepared
Series B
Aaa Corporate Bond Yield
AAA
FRED · 1,289 raw → 1,289 prepared
Sign agreement
83.5%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
5
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.8834
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
7.7218
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-aaa_fred-t10y2y_monthly_5y