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Correlation
of values
+64%
In sync
of periods
41%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-06
120
These move in the same direction about 41% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount (~41% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
S&P 500 moves ~18 months before Aaa Corporate Bond Yield
Watch S&P 500 for an early read on Aaa Corporate Bond Yield.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
41%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+64%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
120 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
2,512
1,290
Normalized
2,512
1,290
Prepared
121
1,290
Aligned
120
120
Invalid removed
41%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
120
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+18 months
Correlation at this shift
+77%
+13% stronger than no-shift baseline
Aaa Corporate Bond Yield shifted 18 months earlier. Reads: "Does S&P 500 today line up with Aaa Corporate Bond Yield 18 months from now?"
102 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+64%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+18 months
+77%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-10%
36 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-13%
12 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-69%
71 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,171
A: 1 / B: 1170
Series A
S&P 500
SP500
FRED · 2,512 raw → 121 prepared
Series B
Aaa Corporate Bond Yield
AAA
FRED · 1,290 raw → 1,290 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
7
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0005
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
2.1737
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-aaa_fred-sp500_monthly_5y