Loading market view
Loading market view
Loading correlations
Correlation
of values
+66%
In sync
of periods
42%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-08
120
These move in the same direction about 42% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount (~43% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
S&P 500 moves ~18 months before Aaa Corporate Bond Yield
Watch S&P 500 for an early read on Aaa Corporate Bond Yield.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
42%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+66%
Based on values
95% CI
+54% → +75%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
120 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
2,512
1,292
Normalized
2,512
1,292
Prepared
121
1,292
Aligned
120
120
Invalid removed
R²(i)
43%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
120
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+18 months
Correlation at this shift
+79%
+13% stronger than no-shift baseline
Aaa Corporate Bond Yield shifted 18 months earlier. Reads: "Does S&P 500 today line up with Aaa Corporate Bond Yield 18 months from now?"
102 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+66%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+18 months
+79%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-14%
37 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-13%
12 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-69%
70 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,173
A: 1 / B: 1172
Series A
S&P 500
SP500
FRED · 2,512 raw → 121 prepared
Series B
Aaa Corporate Bond Yield
AAA
FRED · 1,292 raw → 1,292 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
5
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0005
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
2.1443
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-aaa_fred-sp500_monthly_5y