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Correlation
of values
-69%
In sync
of periods
47%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-06
414
These move in the same direction about 47% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount in the opposite direction (~48% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Aaa Corporate Bond Yield moves ~18 months before Retail Sales
Watch Aaa Corporate Bond Yield for an early read on Retail Sales.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
47%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-69%
Based on values
95% CI
-74% → -64%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
414 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
414
1,290
Normalized
414
1,290
Prepared
414
1,290
Aligned
414
414
Invalid removed
R²(i)
48%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
414
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-18 months
Correlation at this shift
-80%
+11% stronger than no-shift baseline
Aaa Corporate Bond Yield shifted 18 months later. Reads: "Does Retail Sales today line up with Aaa Corporate Bond Yield 18 months ago?"
396 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-69%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-18 months
-80%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+11%
31 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+34%
21 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-40%
65 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
876
A: 0 / B: 876
Series A
Retail Sales
RSAFS
FRED · 414 raw → 414 prepared
Series B
Aaa Corporate Bond Yield
AAA
FRED · 1,290 raw → 1,290 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0000
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
8.0385
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-aaa_fred-rsafs_monthly_5y