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Correlation
of values
+24%
In sync
of periods
53%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-07
710
These move in the same direction about 53% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~6% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
53%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+24%
Based on values
95% CI
+16% → +30%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
710 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,292
710
Normalized
1,292
710
Prepared
1,292
710
Aligned
710
710
Invalid removed
R²(i)
6%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
710
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+24%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
710 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+24%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+24%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-43%
10 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-13%
7 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-30%
16 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
582
A: 582 / B: 0
Series A
Aaa Corporate Bond Yield
AAA
FRED · 1,292 raw → 1,292 prepared
Series B
Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities
RECPROUSM156N
FRED · 710 raw → 710 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
24
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
1.9709
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-5.3482
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-aaa_fred-recprousm156n_monthly_5y