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Correlation
of values
+98%
In sync
of periods
78%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-06
663
These move in the same direction about 78% of the time
When one swings, the other almost always swings by a closely matched amount (~97% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
78%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+98%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
663 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
2,884
1,290
Normalized
2,884
1,290
Prepared
664
1,290
Aligned
663
663
Invalid removed
97%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
663
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+98%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
663 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+98%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+98%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+90%
5 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+55%
16 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-85%
10 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
628
A: 1 / B: 627
Series A
30Y Mortgage Rate
MORTGAGE30US
FRED · 2,884 raw → 664 prepared
Series B
Aaa Corporate Bond Yield
AAA
FRED · 1,290 raw → 1,290 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
35
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.8595
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.4597
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-aaa_fred-mortgage30us_monthly_5y