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Correlation
of values
-68%
In sync
of periods
49%
History
monthsmonths · through 2025-10
240
These move opposite each other about 49% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount in the opposite direction (~46% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Slipping tighter
The recent pattern is tighter than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Aaa Corporate Bond Yield moves ~15 months before Federal Debt
Watch Aaa Corporate Bond Yield for an early read on Federal Debt.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
48.5%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-68%
Based on values
95% CI
-74% → -60%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
240 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
240
1,288
Normalized
240
1,288
Prepared
240
1,288
Aligned
240
240
Invalid removed
R²(i)
45.9%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
240
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-15 months
Correlation at this shift
-74%
+6% stronger than no-shift baseline
Aaa Corporate Bond Yield shifted 15 months later. Reads: "Does Federal Debt today line up with Aaa Corporate Bond Yield 15 months ago?"
225 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-68%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-15 months
-74%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-11%
105 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+63%
10 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-8%
124 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,048
A: 0 / B: 1048
Series A
Federal Debt
GFDEBTN
FRED · 240 raw → 240 prepared
Series B
Aaa Corporate Bond Yield
AAA
FRED · 1,288 raw → 1,288 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0000
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
8.6274
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 days ago · ID: fred-aaa_fred-gfdebtn_monthly_5y