SeriesMagCorrSyncOverlapThrough
Correlation
-71%
of values
In sync
56%
of periods
History
429
months · through 2026-04
These move opposite each other about 56% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount in the opposite direction (~50% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
Time Series
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently tighter than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
Aaa Corporate Bond Yield moves ~18 months before US Gas Price
Watch Aaa Corporate Bond Yield for an early read on US Gas Price.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
56.0%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-71%
Based on values
95% CI
-75% → -65%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
429 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,857
1,288
Normalized
1,857
1,288
Prepared
429
1,288
Aligned
429
429
Invalid removed
Explore
Top 5 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.
R²(i)
49.8%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
429
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-18 months
Correlation at this shift
-80%
+9% stronger than no-shift baseline
Aaa Corporate Bond Yield shifted 18 months later. Reads: "Does US Gas Price today line up with Aaa Corporate Bond Yield 18 months ago?"
411 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-71%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-18 months
-80%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+10%
76 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+45%
76 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-48%
97 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
859
A: 0 / B: 859
Series A
US Gas Price
GASREGW
FRED · 1,857 raw → 429 prepared
Series B
Aaa Corporate Bond Yield
AAA
FRED · 1,288 raw → 1,288 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
5
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-1.2505
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
8.3650
Linear regression intercept.
Saved yesterday · ID: fred-aaa_fred-gasregw_5y