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Correlation
of values
+65%
In sync
of periods
37%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-08
120
These move in the same direction about 37% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount (~42% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Dow Jones Industrial Average moves ~18 months before Aaa Corporate Bond Yield
Watch Dow Jones Industrial Average for an early read on Aaa Corporate Bond Yield.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
37%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+65%
Based on values
95% CI
+53% → +74%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
120 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
2,512
1,292
Normalized
2,512
1,292
Prepared
121
1,292
Aligned
120
120
Invalid removed
R²(i)
42%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
120
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+18 months
Correlation at this shift
+75%
+10% stronger than no-shift baseline
Aaa Corporate Bond Yield shifted 18 months earlier. Reads: "Does Dow Jones Industrial Average today line up with Aaa Corporate Bond Yield 18 months from now?"
102 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+65%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+18 months
+75%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-17%
34 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+14%
10 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-60%
75 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,173
A: 1 / B: 1172
Series A
Dow Jones Industrial Average
DJIA
FRED · 2,512 raw → 121 prepared
Series B
Aaa Corporate Bond Yield
AAA
FRED · 1,292 raw → 1,292 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
7
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0001
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
1.5447
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-aaa_fred-djia_monthly_5y