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Correlation
of values
+93%
In sync
of periods
78%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-08
284
These move in the same direction about 78% of the time
When one swings, the other almost always swings by a closely matched amount (~86% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
78%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+93%
Based on values
95% CI
+91% → +94%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
284 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
5,924
1,292
Normalized
5,924
1,292
Prepared
285
1,292
Aligned
284
284
Invalid removed
R²(i)
86%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
284
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+93%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
284 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+93%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+93%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+81%
82 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+73%
90 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-49%
43 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,009
A: 1 / B: 1008
Series A
10Y Real Yield
DFII10
FRED · 5,924 raw → 285 prepared
Series B
Aaa Corporate Bond Yield
AAA
FRED · 1,292 raw → 1,292 prepared
Sign agreement
84.2%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
25
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.9078
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
3.6112
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-aaa_fred-dfii10_monthly_5y