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Correlation
of values
-33%
In sync
of periods
45%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-06
318
These move in the same direction about 45% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~11% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
45%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-33%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
318 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,290
6,638
Normalized
1,290
6,638
Prepared
1,290
319
Aligned
318
318
Invalid removed
11%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
318
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-33%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
318 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-33%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-33%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-5%
45 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-12%
22 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-12%
117 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
973
A: 972 / B: 1
Series A
Aaa Corporate Bond Yield
AAA
FRED · 1,290 raw → 1,290 prepared
Series B
USD/VES Exchange Rate
DEXVZUS
FRED · 6,638 raw → 319 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
4
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-129884.1111
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
717695.7758
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-aaa_fred-dexvzus_monthly_5y