SeriesMagCorrSyncOverlapThrough
Correlation
+32%
of values
In sync
46%
of periods
History
664
months · through 2026-04
These move in the same direction about 46% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~10% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Time Series
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
AUD/USD Exchange Rate moves ~18 months before Aaa Corporate Bond Yield
Watch AUD/USD Exchange Rate for an early read on Aaa Corporate Bond Yield.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
45.9%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+32%
Based on values
95% CI
+25% → +39%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
664 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,288
13,863
Normalized
1,288
13,863
Prepared
1,288
664
Aligned
664
664
Invalid removed
Explore
Top 5 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.
R²(i)
10.3%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
664
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-18 months
Correlation at this shift
+40%
+8% stronger than no-shift baseline
AUD/USD Exchange Rate shifted 18 months later. Reads: "Does Aaa Corporate Bond Yield today line up with AUD/USD Exchange Rate 18 months ago?"
646 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+32%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-18 months
+40%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-10%
58 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+9%
71 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-56%
120 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
624
A: 624 / B: 0
Series A
Aaa Corporate Bond Yield
AAA
FRED · 1,288 raw → 1,288 prepared
Series B
AUD/USD Exchange Rate
DEXUSAL
FRED · 13,863 raw → 664 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
15
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0254
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.6701
Linear regression intercept.
Saved yesterday · ID: fred-aaa_fred-dexusal_5y