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Correlation
of values
-59%
In sync
of periods
52%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
376
These move opposite each other about 52% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~35% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Aaa Corporate Bond Yield moves ~13 months before USD/BRL Exchange Rate
Watch Aaa Corporate Bond Yield for an early read on USD/BRL Exchange Rate.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
52.5%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-59%
Based on values
95% CI
-65% → -52%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
376 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,288
7,858
Normalized
1,288
7,858
Prepared
1,288
377
Aligned
376
376
Invalid removed
R²(i)
34.8%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
376
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+13 months
Correlation at this shift
-64%
+5% stronger than no-shift baseline
USD/BRL Exchange Rate shifted 13 months earlier. Reads: "Does Aaa Corporate Bond Yield today line up with USD/BRL Exchange Rate 13 months from now?"
363 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-59%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+13 months
-64%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+14%
74 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+13%
70 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-50%
105 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
913
A: 912 / B: 1
Series A
Aaa Corporate Bond Yield
AAA
FRED · 1,288 raw → 1,288 prepared
Series B
USD/BRL Exchange Rate
DEXBZUS
FRED · 7,858 raw → 377 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
5
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.5856
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
5.9159
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 days ago · ID: fred-aaa_fred-dexbzus_monthly_5y