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Correlation
of values
-70%
In sync
of periods
47%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
473
These move in the same direction about 47% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount in the opposite direction (~49% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Aaa Corporate Bond Yield moves ~18 months before Case-Shiller Home Price Index
Watch Aaa Corporate Bond Yield for an early read on Case-Shiller Home Price Index.
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
47%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-70%
Based on values
95% CI
-74% → -65%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
473 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
473
1,290
Normalized
473
1,290
Prepared
473
1,290
Aligned
473
473
Invalid removed
R²(i)
49%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
473
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-18 months
Correlation at this shift
-79%
+9% stronger than no-shift baseline
Aaa Corporate Bond Yield shifted 18 months later. Reads: "Does Case-Shiller Home Price Index today line up with Aaa Corporate Bond Yield 18 months ago?"
455 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-70%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-18 months
-79%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+28%
21 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+5%
10 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-30%
54 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
817
A: 0 / B: 817
Series A
Case-Shiller Home Price Index
CSUSHPINSA
FRED · 473 raw → 473 prepared
Series B
Aaa Corporate Bond Yield
AAA
FRED · 1,290 raw → 1,290 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0184
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
8.7285
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-aaa_fred-csushpinsa_monthly_5y