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Correlation
of values
+65%
In sync
of periods
54%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-07
703
These move in the same direction about 54% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount (~43% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Sticky Price CPI moves ~18 months before Aaa Corporate Bond Yield
Watch Sticky Price CPI for an early read on Aaa Corporate Bond Yield.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
54%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+65%
Based on values
95% CI
+61% → +69%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
703 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
703
1,292
Normalized
703
1,292
Prepared
703
1,292
Aligned
703
703
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
43%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
703
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+18 months
Correlation at this shift
+74%
+9% stronger than no-shift baseline
Aaa Corporate Bond Yield shifted 18 months earlier. Reads: "Does Sticky Price CPI today line up with Aaa Corporate Bond Yield 18 months from now?"
685 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+65%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+18 months
+74%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+34%
11 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
4 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-73%
15 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
589
A: 0 / B: 589
Series A
Sticky Price CPI
CORESTICKM159SFRBATL
FRED · 703 raw → 703 prepared
Series B
Aaa Corporate Bond Yield
AAA
FRED · 1,292 raw → 1,292 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
17
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.6680
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
4.1938
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-aaa_fred-corestickm159sfrbatl_monthly_5y