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Correlation
of values
-69%
In sync
of periods
48%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-08
510
These move in the same direction about 48% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount in the opposite direction (~48% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Aaa Corporate Bond Yield moves ~18 months before Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef
Watch Aaa Corporate Bond Yield for an early read on Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
48%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-69%
Based on values
95% CI
-73% → -64%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
510 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
510
1,292
Normalized
510
1,292
Prepared
510
1,292
Aligned
510
510
Invalid removed
R²(i)
48%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
510
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-18 months
Correlation at this shift
-79%
+10% stronger than no-shift baseline
Aaa Corporate Bond Yield shifted 18 months later. Reads: "Does Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef today line up with Aaa Corporate Bond Yield 18 months ago?"
464 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-69%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-18 months
-79%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-7%
14 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+42%
26 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-36%
30 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
782
A: 0 / B: 782
Series A
Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef
APU0000703112
FRED · 510 raw → 510 prepared
Series B
Aaa Corporate Bond Yield
AAA
FRED · 1,292 raw → 1,292 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
9
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-1.1509
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
9.2745
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-aaa_fred-apu0000703112_monthly_5y