Correlation
of values
+79%
In sync
of periods
60%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-01
142
These move in the same direction about 60% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount (~63% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently looser than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Explore
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
59.6%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+79%
Based on values
95% CI
+72% → +85%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
142 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,857
317
Normalized
1,857
317
Prepared
429
317
Aligned
142
142
Invalid removed
R²(i)
62.9%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
142
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+79%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
142 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+79%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+79%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+8%
70 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+37%
14 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-47%
57 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
462
A: 287 / B: 175
Series A
US Gas Price
GASREGW
FRED · 1,857 raw → 429 prepared
Series B
Real gross domestic product per capita
A939RX0Q048SBEA
FRED · 317 raw → 317 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
6967.7900
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
38452.9253
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 days ago · ID: fred-a939rx0q048sbea_fred-gasregw_5y
Explore
Top 10 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.