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Correlation
of values
+20%
In sync
of periods
67%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-01
105
These move in the same direction about 67% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~4% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Slipping tighter
The recent pattern is tighter than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
USD/VES Exchange Rate moves ~18 months before Real gross domestic product per capita
Watch USD/VES Exchange Rate for an early read on Real gross domestic product per capita.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
67.1%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+20%
Based on values
95% CI
+1% → +38%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
105 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
317
6,606
Normalized
317
6,606
Prepared
317
317
Aligned
105
105
Invalid removed
R²(i)
4.1%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.05
Statistical confidence
Data points
105
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-18 months
Correlation at this shift
+41%
+21% stronger than no-shift baseline
USD/VES Exchange Rate shifted 18 months later. Reads: "Does Real gross domestic product per capita today line up with USD/VES Exchange Rate 18 months ago?"
87 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+20%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-18 months
+41%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+19%
44 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+31%
5 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-19%
55 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
424
A: 212 / B: 212
Series A
Real gross domestic product per capita
A939RX0Q048SBEA
FRED · 317 raw → 317 prepared
Series B
USD/VES Exchange Rate
DEXVZUS
FRED · 6,606 raw → 317 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
4
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
14.8750
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-779647.8223
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-a939rx0q048sbea_fred-dexvzus_monthly_5y