Correlation Analysis
Vistra Corp. vs Exxon Mobil Corporation
VST vs XOM
+0.586
Moderate positive
When one moves up, the other tends to follow.
Vistra Corp.
↗VST
Vistra Corp. is one of the largest power producers and retail energy providers in the USA. It owns 44 gigawatts of generation capacity, including natural gas (27 GW), nuclear (6.5 GW), coal (8.7 GW), and solar and battery storage (1.4 GW). The Cogentrix acquisition will add 5.5 GW of gas generation. Vistra's retail electricity business serves 5 million customers in 20 states, including almost a third of all Texas electricity consumers. Vistra emerged from the Energy Future Holdings bankruptcy as a stand-alone entity in 2016.
Market cap 51.3B · 6,390 employees
Exxon Mobil Corporation
↗XOM
ExxonMobil is an integrated oil and gas company that explores for, produces, and refines oil worldwide. In 2025, it produced 3.3 million barrels of liquids and 8.4 billion cubic feet of natural gas per day. At the end of 2024, reserves were 19.9 billion barrels of oil equivalent, 69% of which were liquids. The company is one of the world's largest refiners, with a total global refining capacity of 4.3 million barrels of oil per day, and is one of the world's largest manufacturers of commodity and specialty chemicals.
Market cap 680.7B
Time Series
Relative Performance
Who Moves First
in sync
VST and XOM tend to move at the same time.
After testing 13 timing shifts, the strongest relationship was +0.586 (they moved in the same direction).
Do They Crash Together?
Correlation by Market Regime
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-0.312
12 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-0.340
5 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-0.321
18 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
R-Squared
34.4%
Share of variance in one series explained by the other.
Trend Agreement
56.8%
How often both series moved in the same direction period-to-period.
Overlap Quality
1,254
Deep shared window — 1,254 usable pairs.
Significance
p < 0.001
95% CI: [0.549, 0.621]
Scatter
XY Regression
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline Summary
1,254 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,254
1,254
Normalized
1,254
1,254
Prepared
1,254
1,254
Aligned
1,254
1,254
Invalid removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Series A
Vistra Corp.
VST
Market cap 51.3B · 6,390 employees
Stock · 1,254 raw → 1,254 prepared
Series B
Exxon Mobil Corporation
XOM
Market cap 680.7B
Stock · 1,254 raw → 1,254 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
7
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.2050
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
86.4239
Linear regression intercept.
Related Extremes
Highest and Lowest Correlated
Saved 7 hours ago · ID: stock-vst-vs-stock-xom-daily