Correlation Analysis
United Parcel Service, Inc. Class B vs Walmart Inc. Common Stock
UPS vs WMT
-0.883
Very strong inverse
When one moves up, the other tends to move down.
United Parcel Service, Inc. Class B
↗UPS
As the world's largest parcel delivery company, UPS manages a massive fleet of more than 500 planes and 100,000 vehicles, along with many hundreds of sorting facilities, to deliver an average of about 22 million packages per day to residences and businesses across the globe. UPS' domestic US package operations generate around 65% of total revenue, while international package makes up 20%. Air and ocean freight forwarding and contract logistics make up the remainder.
Market cap 82.6B · 460,000 employees
Walmart Inc. Common Stock
↗WMT
Since its founding in 1962, Walmart has become the world's largest retailer, operating over 10,700 stores globally (including 4,600 namesake locations on its home turf and another 600 Sam's Club outlets) and growing its e-commerce presence, attracting 270 million customers weekly. In aggregate, the firm posted more than $680 billion in fiscal 2025 sales. Its core operations span three reporting segments: Walmart US (68% of fiscal 2025 sales), Walmart International (18%), and Sam's Club (14%). Within the US, nearly 60% of its $465 billion in fiscal 2025 revenue came from its grocery offerings, with another quarter from general merchandise. Internationally, Walmart's operations are concentrated in Mexico, though it also has budding exposure to India.
Market cap 1T
Time Series
Relative Performance
Who Moves First
UPS leads WMT by 6 days
UPS tends to move before WMT.
After testing 13 timing shifts, the strongest relationship was -0.885 (they moved in opposite directions).
Do They Crash Together?
Correlation by Market Regime
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-0.060
14 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+0.360
7 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-0.235
14 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
R-Squared
78.0%
Share of variance in one series explained by the other.
Trend Agreement
59.1%
How often both series moved in the same direction period-to-period.
Overlap Quality
1,254
Deep shared window — 1,254 usable pairs.
Significance
p < 0.001
95% CI: [-0.895, -0.870]
Scatter
XY Regression
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline Summary
1,254 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,254
1,254
Normalized
1,254
1,254
Prepared
1,254
1,254
Aligned
1,254
1,254
Invalid removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Series A
United Parcel Service, Inc. Class B
UPS
Market cap 82.6B · 460,000 employees
Stock · 1,254 raw → 1,254 prepared
Series B
Walmart Inc. Common Stock
WMT
Market cap 1T
Stock · 1,254 raw → 1,254 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
19
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.5535
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
152.6806
Linear regression intercept.
Related Extremes
Highest and Lowest Correlated
UPS
United Parcel Service, Inc. Class B
Highest
-0.213
Johnson & Johnson
JNJ · 1,254 data points
Lowest
-0.939
Meta Platforms, Inc. Class A Common Stock
META · 1,107 data points
Saved 6 hours ago · ID: stock-ups-vs-stock-wmt-daily