Correlation Analysis
Tesla, Inc. Common Stock vs Ulta Beauty, Inc. Common Stock
TSLA vs ULTA
+0.345
Light positive
When one moves up, the other tends to follow.
Tesla, Inc. Common Stock
↗TSLA
Tesla is a vertically integrated battery electric vehicle automaker and developer of real world artificial intelligence software, which includes autonomous driving and humanoid robots. The company has multiple vehicles in its fleet, which include luxury and midsize sedans, crossover SUVs, a light truck, and a semi truck. Tesla also plans to begin selling a sports car and offer a robotaxi service. Global deliveries in 2025 were nearly 1.64 million vehicles. The company sells batteries for stationary storage for residential and commercial properties including utilities and solar panels and solar roofs for energy generation. Tesla also owns a fast-charging network and an auto insurance business.
Market cap 1.3T
Ulta Beauty, Inc. Common Stock
↗ULTA
Ulta Beauty is the largest specialized beauty retailer in the US with more than 1,500 freestanding stores. The firm offers cosmetics (38% of 2025 sales), fragrances (13%), skin care (24%), and hair care products (19%). It also has salon services, including hair, makeup, skin, and brow, that account for 4% of its revenue and drive customer traffic. Outside of the US, Ulta operates premium beauty retailer Space NK (86 stores at year-end 2025 in the UK and Ireland) and has franchised stores in Mexico, and a joint venture in the Middle East. In addition, Ulta collects royalties through its Target partnership (ending in summer 2026) and credit card revenue. Ulta was founded in 1990 and is based in Bolingbrook, Illinois.
Market cap 23.7B · 65,000 employees
Time Series
Relative Performance
Who Moves First
in sync
TSLA and ULTA tend to move at the same time.
After testing 13 timing shifts, the strongest relationship was +0.345 (they moved in the same direction).
Do They Crash Together?
Correlation by Market Regime
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+0.086
12 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-0.313
9 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-0.429
14 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
R-Squared
11.9%
Share of variance in one series explained by the other.
Trend Agreement
60.2%
How often both series moved in the same direction period-to-period.
Overlap Quality
1,254
Deep shared window — 1,254 usable pairs.
Significance
p < 0.001
95% CI: [0.295, 0.393]
Scatter
XY Regression
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline Summary
1,254 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,254
1,254
Normalized
1,254
1,254
Prepared
1,254
1,254
Aligned
1,254
1,254
Invalid removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Series A
Tesla, Inc. Common Stock
TSLA
Market cap 1.3T
Stock · 1,254 raw → 1,254 prepared
Series B
Ulta Beauty, Inc. Common Stock
ULTA
Market cap 23.7B · 65,000 employees
Stock · 1,254 raw → 1,254 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
47
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.3317
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
345.8709
Linear regression intercept.
Related Extremes
Highest and Lowest Correlated
TSLA
Tesla, Inc. Common Stock
Highest
+0.870
Reddit, Inc.
RDDT · 512 data points
Lowest
-0.817
Elevance Health, Inc.
ELV · 947 data points
ULTA
Ulta Beauty, Inc. Common Stock
Highest
+0.639
Micron Technology, Inc.
MU · 1,254 data points
Lowest
+0.198
Amazon.Com Inc
AMZN · 1,254 data points
Saved 7 hours ago · ID: stock-tsla-vs-stock-ulta-daily