Correlation Analysis
Tesla, Inc. Common Stock vs Progressive Corporation
TSLA vs PGR
+0.328
Light positive
When one moves up, the other tends to follow.
Tesla, Inc. Common Stock
↗TSLA
Tesla is a vertically integrated battery electric vehicle automaker and developer of real world artificial intelligence software, which includes autonomous driving and humanoid robots. The company has multiple vehicles in its fleet, which include luxury and midsize sedans, crossover SUVs, a light truck, and a semi truck. Tesla also plans to begin selling a sports car and offer a robotaxi service. Global deliveries in 2025 were nearly 1.64 million vehicles. The company sells batteries for stationary storage for residential and commercial properties including utilities and solar panels and solar roofs for energy generation. Tesla also owns a fast-charging network and an auto insurance business.
Market cap 1.3T
Progressive Corporation
↗PGR
Progressive underwrites private and commercial auto insurance and specialty lines; it has almost 27 million personal auto policies in force and is one of the largest auto insurers in the United States. Progressive markets its policies through independent insurance agencies in the US and Canada and directly via the internet and telephone. Its premiums are split between the agent and the direct channel. The company also offers commercial auto policies and entered homeowners insurance through an acquisition in 2015.
Market cap 114.9B · 70,000 employees
Who Moves First
PGR leads TSLA by 6 days
PGR tends to move before TSLA.
Best correlation after shifting: +0.340 (13 shifts scanned)
Do They Crash Together?
Correlation by Market Regime
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-0.037
10 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-0.824
6 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-0.592
19 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
R-Squared
10.7%
Share of variance in one series explained by the other.
Trend Agreement
49.0%
How often both series moved in the same direction period-to-period.
Overlap Quality
1,254
Deep shared window — 1,254 usable pairs.
Significance
p < 0.001
95% CI: [0.277, 0.376]
Time Series
Rebased to 100
Scatter
XY Regression
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline Summary
1,254 paired observations survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,254
1,254
Normalized
1,254
1,254
Prepared
1,254
1,254
Aligned
1,254
1,254
Invalid removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Series A
Tesla, Inc. Common Stock
TSLA
Market cap 1.3T
Stock · 1,254 raw → 1,254 prepared
Series B
Progressive Corporation
PGR
Market cap 114.9B · 70,000 employees
Stock · 1,254 raw → 1,254 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
32
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.2402
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
105.0199
Linear regression intercept.
Related Extremes
Highest and Lowest Correlated
Saved 3 hours ago · ID: stock-tsla-vs-stock-pgr-daily-20260408-0np3v2