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Correlation Analysis

Nvidia Corp vs Alcoa Corporation

NVDA vs AA

-0.183

Weak inverse

When one moves up, the other tends to move down.

NVDA logo

Nvidia Corp

NVDA

Nvidia is a leading developer of graphics processing units. Traditionally, GPUs were used to enhance the experience on computing platforms, most notably in gaming applications on PCs. GPU use cases have since emerged as important semiconductors used in artificial intelligence to run large language models. Nvidia not only offers AI GPUs, but also a software platform, Cuda, used for AI model development and training. Nvidia is also expanding its data center networking solutions, helping to tie GPUs together to handle complex workloads.

Market cap 4.3T

AA logo

Alcoa Corporation

AA

Alcoa is a vertically integrated aluminum company whose operations include bauxite mining, alumina refining, and manufacturing primary aluminum. It is one of the world's largest bauxite miners and alumina refiners by production volume, but sits outside the top-10 aluminum producers, a list dominated by Chinese companies. Profits are closely tied to prevailing commodity prices along the aluminum supply chain.Alcoa was the first mass producer of aluminum, launching the world-changing Hall-Heroult smelting process in the 1880s, making aluminum affordable. It listed as a public company in 1925. In 2016, Alcoa spun off its automotive and aerospace metal parts segment to focus on mining, smelting, and refining. It bought the 40% unowned balance of AWAC in mid-2024.

Market cap 18.7B · 14,900 employees

Apr 9, 2021 — Apr 7, 2026Daily1,254 observationsStockStockTechnology

Time Series

Rebased to 100

Green: NVDAGray: AA36 of 1,254 points (sampled)

Who Moves First

AA leads NVDA by 6 days

AA tends to move before NVDA.

Best correlation after shifting: -0.217 (13 shifts scanned)

Do They Crash Together?

Correlation by Market Regime

How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.

Both Rising

-0.432

14 periods · Return correlation when both series rose

Both Falling

-0.044

8 periods · Return correlation when both series fell

Diverging

-0.806

13 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart

R-Squared

3.4%

Share of variance in one series explained by the other.

Trend Agreement

62.3%

How often both series moved in the same direction period-to-period.

Overlap Quality

1,254

Deep shared window — 1,254 usable pairs.

Significance

p < 0.001

95% CI: [-0.236, -0.129]

Scatter

XY Regression

-1.705010015020021819.8203040506070809092.8Nvidia CorpAlcoa CorporationData pointsFit (r = -0.183)

Pipeline

Data quality details

Pipeline Summary

1,254 paired observations survived the daily window.

Raw input

1,254

1,254

Normalized

1,254

1,254

Prepared

1,254

1,254

Aligned

1,254

1,254

Invalid removed

0

A: 0 / B: 0

Duplicates removed

0

A: 0 / B: 0

Alignment drops

0

A: 0 / B: 0

Series A

NVDA logo

Nvidia Corp

NVDA

Market cap 4.3T

Stock · 1,254 raw → 1,254 prepared

Series B

AA logo

Alcoa Corporation

AA

Market cap 18.7B · 14,900 employees

Stock · 1,254 raw → 1,254 prepared

Sign agreement

100.0%

How often both values share the same sign.

Zero crossings

1

Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.

Slope

-0.0398

Linear regression slope.

Intercept

45.0493

Linear regression intercept.

Related Extremes

Highest and Lowest Correlated

Saved 3 hours ago · ID: stock-nvda-vs-stock-aa-daily-20260408-elrue8