Correlation Analysis
Microsoft Corp vs Watsco, Inc.
MSFT vs WSO
+0.767
Strong positive
When one moves up, the other tends to follow.
Microsoft Corp
↗MSFT
Microsoft develops and licenses consumer and enterprise software. It is known for its Windows operating systems and Office productivity suite. The company is organized into three equally sized broad segments: productivity and business processes (legacy Microsoft Office, cloud-based Office 365, Exchange, SharePoint, Skype, LinkedIn, Dynamics), intelligence cloud (infrastructure- and platform-as-a-service offerings Azure, Windows Server OS, SQL Server), and more personal computing (Windows Client, Xbox, Bing search, display advertising, and Surface laptops, tablets, and desktops).
Market cap 2.8T
Watsco, Inc.
↗WSO
Watsco is the largest HVAC and refrigeration products distributor in North America with approximately 13% market share. The company primarily operates in the United States (90% of revenue) with significant exposure in the Sunbelt states. Watsco also has operations in Canada, Latin America, and the Caribbean. The company's customer base comprises more than 120,000 dealers and contractors serving the replacement and new-construction HVAC/R markets for residential and light-commercial applications. As much as 20% of residential HVAC units are distributed through Watsco in any given year. Revenue is approximately 75%-80% residential HVAC and 20%-25% commercial, with relatively small exposure to more complex "applied" solutions.
Market cap 15.4B · 7,050 employees
Time Series
Rebased to 100
Who Moves First
WSO leads MSFT by 6 days
WSO tends to move before MSFT.
Best correlation after shifting: +0.770 (13 shifts scanned)
Do They Crash Together?
Correlation by Market Regime
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+0.146
15 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+0.009
10 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-0.836
10 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
R-Squared
58.8%
Share of variance in one series explained by the other.
Trend Agreement
61.7%
How often both series moved in the same direction period-to-period.
Overlap Quality
1,254
Deep shared window — 1,254 usable pairs.
Significance
p < 0.001
95% CI: [0.743, 0.788]
Scatter
XY Regression
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline Summary
1,254 paired observations survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,254
1,254
Normalized
1,254
1,254
Prepared
1,254
1,254
Aligned
1,254
1,254
Invalid removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Series A
Microsoft Corp
MSFT
Market cap 2.8T
Stock · 1,254 raw → 1,254 prepared
Series B
Watsco, Inc.
WSO
Market cap 15.4B · 7,050 employees
Stock · 1,254 raw → 1,254 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
46
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.7647
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
91.4067
Linear regression intercept.
Related Extremes
Highest and Lowest Correlated
Saved 3 hours ago · ID: stock-msft-vs-stock-wso-daily-20260408-lchr66