Correlation Analysis
Microsoft Corp vs Valero Energy Corporation
MSFT vs VLO
+0.580
Moderate positive
When one moves up, the other tends to follow.
Microsoft Corp
↗MSFT
Microsoft develops and licenses consumer and enterprise software. It is known for its Windows operating systems and Office productivity suite. The company is organized into three equally sized broad segments: productivity and business processes (legacy Microsoft Office, cloud-based Office 365, Exchange, SharePoint, Skype, LinkedIn, Dynamics), intelligence cloud (infrastructure- and platform-as-a-service offerings Azure, Windows Server OS, SQL Server), and more personal computing (Windows Client, Xbox, Bing search, display advertising, and Surface laptops, tablets, and desktops).
Market cap 2.8T
Valero Energy Corporation
↗VLO
Valero Energy is one of the largest independent refiners in the United States. It operates 15 refineries, with a total throughput capacity of 3.2 million barrels a day in the US, Canada, and the United Kingdom. Valero also owns 12 ethanol plants with capacity of 1.6 billion gallons a year and holds a 50% stake in Diamond Green Diesel, which can produce 1.2 billion gallons per year of renewable diesel.
Market cap 73.4B · 9,811 employees
Time Series
Relative Performance
Who Moves First
MSFT leads VLO by 6 days
MSFT tends to move before VLO.
After testing 13 timing shifts, the strongest relationship was +0.594 (they moved in the same direction).
Do They Crash Together?
Correlation by Market Regime
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+0.262
11 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-0.058
5 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-0.802
19 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
R-Squared
33.7%
Share of variance in one series explained by the other.
Trend Agreement
52.8%
How often both series moved in the same direction period-to-period.
Overlap Quality
1,254
Deep shared window — 1,254 usable pairs.
Significance
p < 0.001
95% CI: [0.542, 0.616]
Scatter
XY Regression
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline Summary
1,254 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,254
1,254
Normalized
1,254
1,254
Prepared
1,254
1,254
Aligned
1,254
1,254
Invalid removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Series A
Microsoft Corp
MSFT
Market cap 2.8T
Stock · 1,254 raw → 1,254 prepared
Series B
Valero Energy Corporation
VLO
Market cap 73.4B · 9,811 employees
Stock · 1,254 raw → 1,254 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
14
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.2383
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
41.7688
Linear regression intercept.
Related Extremes
Highest and Lowest Correlated
Saved 5 hours ago · ID: stock-msft-vs-stock-vlo-daily-20260408-nvgpds