Correlation Analysis
Microsoft Corp vs Ulta Beauty, Inc. Common Stock
MSFT vs ULTA
+0.384
Light positive
When one moves up, the other tends to follow.
Microsoft Corp
↗MSFT
Microsoft develops and licenses consumer and enterprise software. It is known for its Windows operating systems and Office productivity suite. The company is organized into three equally sized broad segments: productivity and business processes (legacy Microsoft Office, cloud-based Office 365, Exchange, SharePoint, Skype, LinkedIn, Dynamics), intelligence cloud (infrastructure- and platform-as-a-service offerings Azure, Windows Server OS, SQL Server), and more personal computing (Windows Client, Xbox, Bing search, display advertising, and Surface laptops, tablets, and desktops).
Market cap 2.8T
Ulta Beauty, Inc. Common Stock
↗ULTA
Ulta Beauty is the largest specialized beauty retailer in the US with more than 1,500 freestanding stores. The firm offers cosmetics (38% of 2025 sales), fragrances (13%), skin care (24%), and hair care products (19%). It also has salon services, including hair, makeup, skin, and brow, that account for 4% of its revenue and drive customer traffic. Outside of the US, Ulta operates premium beauty retailer Space NK (86 stores at year-end 2025 in the UK and Ireland) and has franchised stores in Mexico, and a joint venture in the Middle East. In addition, Ulta collects royalties through its Target partnership (ending in summer 2026) and credit card revenue. Ulta was founded in 1990 and is based in Bolingbrook, Illinois.
Market cap 23.7B · 65,000 employees
Time Series
Rebased to 100
Who Moves First
MSFT leads ULTA by 6 days
MSFT tends to move before ULTA.
Best correlation after shifting: +0.387 (13 shifts scanned)
Do They Crash Together?
Correlation by Market Regime
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+0.559
14 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-0.282
9 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-0.727
12 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
R-Squared
14.7%
Share of variance in one series explained by the other.
Trend Agreement
58.9%
How often both series moved in the same direction period-to-period.
Overlap Quality
1,254
Deep shared window — 1,254 usable pairs.
Significance
p < 0.001
95% CI: [0.335, 0.430]
Scatter
XY Regression
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline Summary
1,254 paired observations survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,254
1,254
Normalized
1,254
1,254
Prepared
1,254
1,254
Aligned
1,254
1,254
Invalid removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Series A
Microsoft Corp
MSFT
Market cap 2.8T
Stock · 1,254 raw → 1,254 prepared
Series B
Ulta Beauty, Inc. Common Stock
ULTA
Market cap 23.7B · 65,000 employees
Stock · 1,254 raw → 1,254 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
51
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.3645
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
306.1279
Linear regression intercept.
Related Extremes
Highest and Lowest Correlated
MSFT
Microsoft Corp
Highest
+0.938
Cadence Design Systems
CDNS · 1,254 observations
Lowest
-0.867
Bristol-Myers Squibb Co.
BMY · 1,254 observations
ULTA
Ulta Beauty, Inc. Common Stock
Highest
+0.639
Micron Technology, Inc.
MU · 1,254 observations
Lowest
+0.198
Amazon.Com Inc
AMZN · 1,254 observations
Saved 3 hours ago · ID: stock-msft-vs-stock-ulta-daily-20260408-nnzfjx