Correlation Analysis
Microsoft Corp vs PayPal Holdings, Inc. Common Stock
MSFT vs PYPL
-0.416
Moderate inverse
When one moves up, the other tends to move down.
Microsoft Corp
↗MSFT
Microsoft develops and licenses consumer and enterprise software. It is known for its Windows operating systems and Office productivity suite. The company is organized into three equally sized broad segments: productivity and business processes (legacy Microsoft Office, cloud-based Office 365, Exchange, SharePoint, Skype, LinkedIn, Dynamics), intelligence cloud (infrastructure- and platform-as-a-service offerings Azure, Windows Server OS, SQL Server), and more personal computing (Windows Client, Xbox, Bing search, display advertising, and Surface laptops, tablets, and desktops).
Market cap 2.8T
PayPal Holdings, Inc. Common Stock
↗PYPL
PayPal was spun off from eBay in 2015 and provides electronic payment solutions to merchants and consumers, with a focus on online transactions. The company had 434 million active accounts at the end of 2024. The company also owns Venmo, a person-to-person payment platform.
Market cap 41.9B · 23,800 employees
Time Series
Rebased to 100
Who Moves First
MSFT leads PYPL by 6 days
MSFT tends to move before PYPL.
Best correlation after shifting: -0.418 (13 shifts scanned)
Do They Crash Together?
Correlation by Market Regime
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+0.091
11 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+0.342
12 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-0.491
12 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
R-Squared
17.3%
Share of variance in one series explained by the other.
Trend Agreement
66.6%
How often both series moved in the same direction period-to-period.
Overlap Quality
1,254
Deep shared window — 1,254 usable pairs.
Significance
p < 0.001
95% CI: [-0.461, -0.370]
Scatter
XY Regression
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline Summary
1,254 paired observations survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,254
1,254
Normalized
1,254
1,254
Prepared
1,254
1,254
Aligned
1,254
1,254
Invalid removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Series A
Microsoft Corp
MSFT
Market cap 2.8T
Stock · 1,254 raw → 1,254 prepared
Series B
PayPal Holdings, Inc. Common Stock
PYPL
Market cap 41.9B · 23,800 employees
Stock · 1,254 raw → 1,254 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
11
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.3378
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
221.9012
Linear regression intercept.
Related Extremes
Highest and Lowest Correlated
MSFT
Microsoft Corp
Highest
+0.938
Cadence Design Systems
CDNS · 1,254 observations
Lowest
-0.867
Bristol-Myers Squibb Co.
BMY · 1,254 observations
PYPL
PayPal Holdings, Inc. Common Stock
Highest
-0.013
Amazon.Com Inc
AMZN · 1,254 observations
Lowest
-0.854
Exxon Mobil Corporation
XOM · 1,254 observations
Saved 3 hours ago · ID: stock-msft-vs-stock-pypl-daily-20260408-lg9a5q