Correlation Analysis
Microsoft Corp vs Progressive Corporation
MSFT vs PGR
+0.840
Strong positive
When one moves up, the other tends to follow.
Microsoft Corp
↗MSFT
Microsoft develops and licenses consumer and enterprise software. It is known for its Windows operating systems and Office productivity suite. The company is organized into three equally sized broad segments: productivity and business processes (legacy Microsoft Office, cloud-based Office 365, Exchange, SharePoint, Skype, LinkedIn, Dynamics), intelligence cloud (infrastructure- and platform-as-a-service offerings Azure, Windows Server OS, SQL Server), and more personal computing (Windows Client, Xbox, Bing search, display advertising, and Surface laptops, tablets, and desktops).
Market cap 2.8T
Progressive Corporation
↗PGR
Progressive underwrites private and commercial auto insurance and specialty lines; it has almost 27 million personal auto policies in force and is one of the largest auto insurers in the United States. Progressive markets its policies through independent insurance agencies in the US and Canada and directly via the internet and telephone. Its premiums are split between the agent and the direct channel. The company also offers commercial auto policies and entered homeowners insurance through an acquisition in 2015.
Market cap 114.9B · 70,000 employees
Time Series
Relative Performance
Who Moves First
PGR leads MSFT by 6 days
PGR tends to move before MSFT.
After testing 13 timing shifts, the strongest relationship was +0.842 (they moved in the same direction).
Do They Crash Together?
Correlation by Market Regime
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+0.187
12 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+0.672
6 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-0.809
17 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
R-Squared
70.5%
Share of variance in one series explained by the other.
Trend Agreement
55.6%
How often both series moved in the same direction period-to-period.
Overlap Quality
1,254
Deep shared window — 1,254 usable pairs.
Significance
p < 0.001
95% CI: [0.822, 0.855]
Scatter
XY Regression
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline Summary
1,254 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,254
1,254
Normalized
1,254
1,254
Prepared
1,254
1,254
Aligned
1,254
1,254
Invalid removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Series A
Microsoft Corp
MSFT
Market cap 2.8T
Stock · 1,254 raw → 1,254 prepared
Series B
Progressive Corporation
PGR
Market cap 114.9B · 70,000 employees
Stock · 1,254 raw → 1,254 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
46
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.6082
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-47.0651
Linear regression intercept.
Related Extremes
Highest and Lowest Correlated
Saved 5 hours ago · ID: stock-msft-vs-stock-pgr-daily-20260408-zm4t6c