Correlation Analysis
Microsoft Corp vs International Business Machines Corporation
MSFT vs IBM
+0.855
Very strong positive
When one moves up, the other tends to follow.
Microsoft Corp
↗MSFT
Microsoft develops and licenses consumer and enterprise software. It is known for its Windows operating systems and Office productivity suite. The company is organized into three equally sized broad segments: productivity and business processes (legacy Microsoft Office, cloud-based Office 365, Exchange, SharePoint, Skype, LinkedIn, Dynamics), intelligence cloud (infrastructure- and platform-as-a-service offerings Azure, Windows Server OS, SQL Server), and more personal computing (Windows Client, Xbox, Bing search, display advertising, and Surface laptops, tablets, and desktops).
Market cap 2.8T
International Business Machines Corporation
↗IBM
Incorporated in 1911, International Business Machines, or IBM, is one of the oldest technology companies in the world. It provides software, IT consulting services, and hardware to help business customers modernize their technology workflows. IBM operates in 175 countries and employs approximately 300,000 people. The company has a robust roster of business partners to service its clients, which includes 95% of all Fortune 500 companies. IBMs products, including Red Hat, watsonx, and mainframes, handle some of the worlds most important data workloads in areas like finance and retail.
Market cap 231.5B
Time Series
Relative Performance
Who Moves First
MSFT leads IBM by 6 days
MSFT tends to move before IBM.
After testing 13 timing shifts, the strongest relationship was +0.863 (they moved in the same direction).
Do They Crash Together?
Correlation by Market Regime
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+0.534
13 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+0.751
7 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-0.617
15 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
R-Squared
73.0%
Share of variance in one series explained by the other.
Trend Agreement
62.3%
How often both series moved in the same direction period-to-period.
Overlap Quality
1,254
Deep shared window — 1,254 usable pairs.
Significance
p < 0.001
95% CI: [0.839, 0.869]
Scatter
XY Regression
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline Summary
1,254 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,254
1,254
Normalized
1,254
1,254
Prepared
1,254
1,254
Aligned
1,254
1,254
Invalid removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Series A
Microsoft Corp
MSFT
Market cap 2.8T
Stock · 1,254 raw → 1,254 prepared
Series B
International Business Machines Corporation
IBM
Market cap 231.5B
Stock · 1,254 raw → 1,254 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
28
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.5869
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-30.1435
Linear regression intercept.
Related Extremes
Highest and Lowest Correlated
MSFT
Microsoft Corp
Highest
+0.938
Cadence Design Systems
CDNS · 1,254 data points
Lowest
-0.867
Bristol-Myers Squibb Co.
BMY · 1,254 data points
IBM
International Business Machines Corporation
Highest
+0.956
JPMorgan Chase & Co.
JPM · 1,254 data points
Lowest
+0.356
Johnson & Johnson
JNJ · 1,254 data points
Saved 5 hours ago · ID: stock-msft-vs-stock-ibm-daily-20260408-d4629x