Correlation Analysis
Microsoft Corp vs Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF
MSFT vs GBTC
+0.927
Very strong positive
When one moves up, the other tends to follow.
Microsoft Corp
↗MSFT
Microsoft develops and licenses consumer and enterprise software. It is known for its Windows operating systems and Office productivity suite. The company is organized into three equally sized broad segments: productivity and business processes (legacy Microsoft Office, cloud-based Office 365, Exchange, SharePoint, Skype, LinkedIn, Dynamics), intelligence cloud (infrastructure- and platform-as-a-service offerings Azure, Windows Server OS, SQL Server), and more personal computing (Windows Client, Xbox, Bing search, display advertising, and Surface laptops, tablets, and desktops).
Market cap 2.8T
Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF
GBTC
Time Series
Relative Performance
Who Moves First
in sync
MSFT and GBTC tend to move at the same time.
After testing 13 timing shifts, the strongest relationship was +0.927 (they moved in the same direction).
Do They Crash Together?
Correlation by Market Regime
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+0.073
17 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+0.503
9 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-0.375
9 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
R-Squared
85.9%
Share of variance in one series explained by the other.
Trend Agreement
58.8%
How often both series moved in the same direction period-to-period.
Overlap Quality
1,066
Deep shared window — 1,066 usable pairs.
Significance
p < 0.001
95% CI: [0.918, 0.935]
Scatter
XY Regression
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline Summary
1,066 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,254
1,066
Normalized
1,254
1,066
Prepared
1,254
1,066
Aligned
1,066
1,066
Invalid removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
188
A: 188 / B: 0
Series A
Microsoft Corp
MSFT
Market cap 2.8T
Stock · 1,254 raw → 1,254 prepared
Series B
Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF
GBTC
Stock · 1,066 raw → 1,066 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
12
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.2945
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-64.7019
Linear regression intercept.
Related Extremes
Highest and Lowest Correlated
Saved 5 hours ago · ID: stock-msft-vs-stock-gbtc-daily-20260408-mygixd