Correlation Analysis
Microsoft Corp vs Circle Internet Group, Inc.
MSFT vs CRCL
+0.486
Moderate positive
When one moves up, the other tends to follow.
Microsoft Corp
↗MSFT
Microsoft develops and licenses consumer and enterprise software. It is known for its Windows operating systems and Office productivity suite. The company is organized into three equally sized broad segments: productivity and business processes (legacy Microsoft Office, cloud-based Office 365, Exchange, SharePoint, Skype, LinkedIn, Dynamics), intelligence cloud (infrastructure- and platform-as-a-service offerings Azure, Windows Server OS, SQL Server), and more personal computing (Windows Client, Xbox, Bing search, display advertising, and Surface laptops, tablets, and desktops).
Market cap 2.8T
Circle Internet Group, Inc.
↗CRCL
Circle Internet Group Inc is a financial technology firm engaged in digital currencies and public blockchains for payments, commerce, and financial applications. The company's platform is a full-stack, internet financial platform business, organized around three pillars: Arc Blockchain and Developer Infrastructure, Circle Digital Assets and Services, and Circle Applications.
Market cap 22.8B · 1,100 employees
Who Moves First
CRCL leads MSFT by 6 days
CRCL tends to move before MSFT.
Best correlation after shifting: +0.536 (13 shifts scanned)
Do They Crash Together?
Correlation by Market Regime
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+0.292
11 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+0.169
10 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-0.501
14 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
R-Squared
23.6%
Share of variance in one series explained by the other.
Trend Agreement
58.7%
How often both series moved in the same direction period-to-period.
Overlap Quality
210
Usable shared window — 210 usable pairs.
Significance
p < 0.001
95% CI: [0.375, 0.583]
Time Series
Rebased to 100
Scatter
XY Regression
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline Summary
210 paired observations survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,254
210
Normalized
1,254
210
Prepared
1,254
210
Aligned
210
210
Invalid removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,044
A: 1044 / B: 0
Series A
Microsoft Corp
MSFT
Market cap 2.8T
Stock · 1,254 raw → 1,254 prepared
Series B
Circle Internet Group, Inc.
CRCL
Market cap 22.8B · 1,100 employees
Stock · 210 raw → 210 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
7
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.4594
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-99.2896
Linear regression intercept.
Related Extremes
Highest and Lowest Correlated
Saved 3 hours ago · ID: stock-msft-vs-stock-crcl-daily-20260408-twiw5b