Correlation Analysis
Microsoft Corp vs The Carlyle Group Inc. Common Stock
MSFT vs CG
+0.662
Strong positive
When one moves up, the other tends to follow.
Microsoft Corp
↗MSFT
Microsoft develops and licenses consumer and enterprise software. It is known for its Windows operating systems and Office productivity suite. The company is organized into three equally sized broad segments: productivity and business processes (legacy Microsoft Office, cloud-based Office 365, Exchange, SharePoint, Skype, LinkedIn, Dynamics), intelligence cloud (infrastructure- and platform-as-a-service offerings Azure, Windows Server OS, SQL Server), and more personal computing (Windows Client, Xbox, Bing search, display advertising, and Surface laptops, tablets, and desktops).
Market cap 2.8T
The Carlyle Group Inc. Common Stock
↗CG
Carlyle Group is one of the world's largest alternative-asset managers, with $476.9 billion in total AUM, including $336.8 billion in fee-earning AUM, at the end of 2025. The company has three core business segments: global private equity, which includes its private equity, real estate, infrastructure, and natural resources offerings (with $163.6 billion in total AUM and $101.4 billion in fee-earning AUM), global credit ($211.3 billion/$169.5 billion), and investment/fund solutions, known as Carlyle AlphInvest ($101.0 billion/$65.9 billion). The firm primarily serves institutional investors and high-net-worth individuals. Carlyle operates through 29 offices across five continents, serving more than 3,100 active carry fund investors from 87 countries.
Market cap 16.9B · 2,500 employees
Who Moves First
MSFT leads CG by 6 days
MSFT tends to move before CG.
Best correlation after shifting: +0.670 (13 shifts scanned)
Do They Crash Together?
Correlation by Market Regime
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+0.469
13 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+0.405
10 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-0.608
12 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
R-Squared
43.8%
Share of variance in one series explained by the other.
Trend Agreement
66.2%
How often both series moved in the same direction period-to-period.
Overlap Quality
1,254
Deep shared window — 1,254 usable pairs.
Significance
p < 0.001
95% CI: [0.630, 0.692]
Time Series
Rebased to 100
Scatter
XY Regression
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline Summary
1,254 paired observations survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,254
1,254
Normalized
1,254
1,254
Prepared
1,254
1,254
Aligned
1,254
1,254
Invalid removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Series A
Microsoft Corp
MSFT
Market cap 2.8T
Stock · 1,254 raw → 1,254 prepared
Series B
The Carlyle Group Inc. Common Stock
CG
Market cap 16.9B · 2,500 employees
Stock · 1,254 raw → 1,254 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
9
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0801
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
14.6922
Linear regression intercept.
Related Extremes
Highest and Lowest Correlated
MSFT
Microsoft Corp
Highest
+0.938
Cadence Design Systems
CDNS · 1,254 observations
Lowest
-0.867
Bristol-Myers Squibb Co.
BMY · 1,254 observations
CG
The Carlyle Group Inc. Common Stock
Highest
+0.756
JPMorgan Chase & Co.
JPM · 1,254 observations
Lowest
-0.000
Exxon Mobil Corporation
XOM · 1,254 observations
Saved 3 hours ago · ID: stock-msft-vs-stock-cg-daily-20260408-813b6e