Correlation Analysis
Microsoft Corp vs Alcoa Corporation
MSFT vs AA
-0.328
Light inverse
When one moves up, the other tends to move down.
Microsoft Corp
↗MSFT
Microsoft develops and licenses consumer and enterprise software. It is known for its Windows operating systems and Office productivity suite. The company is organized into three equally sized broad segments: productivity and business processes (legacy Microsoft Office, cloud-based Office 365, Exchange, SharePoint, Skype, LinkedIn, Dynamics), intelligence cloud (infrastructure- and platform-as-a-service offerings Azure, Windows Server OS, SQL Server), and more personal computing (Windows Client, Xbox, Bing search, display advertising, and Surface laptops, tablets, and desktops).
Market cap 2.8T
Alcoa Corporation
↗AA
Alcoa is a vertically integrated aluminum company whose operations include bauxite mining, alumina refining, and manufacturing primary aluminum. It is one of the world's largest bauxite miners and alumina refiners by production volume, but sits outside the top-10 aluminum producers, a list dominated by Chinese companies. Profits are closely tied to prevailing commodity prices along the aluminum supply chain.Alcoa was the first mass producer of aluminum, launching the world-changing Hall-Heroult smelting process in the 1880s, making aluminum affordable. It listed as a public company in 1925. In 2016, Alcoa spun off its automotive and aerospace metal parts segment to focus on mining, smelting, and refining. It bought the 40% unowned balance of AWAC in mid-2024.
Market cap 18.7B · 14,900 employees
Who Moves First
AA leads MSFT by 6 days
AA tends to move before MSFT.
Best correlation after shifting: -0.367 (13 shifts scanned)
Do They Crash Together?
Correlation by Market Regime
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-0.606
13 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+0.318
9 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-0.797
13 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
R-Squared
10.8%
Share of variance in one series explained by the other.
Trend Agreement
57.8%
How often both series moved in the same direction period-to-period.
Overlap Quality
1,254
Deep shared window — 1,254 usable pairs.
Significance
p < 0.001
95% CI: [-0.377, -0.278]
Time Series
Rebased to 100
Scatter
XY Regression
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline Summary
1,254 paired observations survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,254
1,254
Normalized
1,254
1,254
Prepared
1,254
1,254
Aligned
1,254
1,254
Invalid removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Series A
Microsoft Corp
MSFT
Market cap 2.8T
Stock · 1,254 raw → 1,254 prepared
Series B
Alcoa Corporation
AA
Market cap 18.7B · 14,900 employees
Stock · 1,254 raw → 1,254 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
6
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0520
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
60.6608
Linear regression intercept.
Related Extremes
Highest and Lowest Correlated
Saved 3 hours ago · ID: stock-msft-vs-stock-aa-daily-20260408-18bd7r