Correlation Analysis
Microsoft Corp vs UNRATE
MSFT vs UNRATE
+0.087
Weak positive
When one moves up, the other tends to follow.
Microsoft Corp
↗MSFT
Microsoft develops and licenses consumer and enterprise software. It is known for its Windows operating systems and Office productivity suite. The company is organized into three equally sized broad segments: productivity and business processes (legacy Microsoft Office, cloud-based Office 365, Exchange, SharePoint, Skype, LinkedIn, Dynamics), intelligence cloud (infrastructure- and platform-as-a-service offerings Azure, Windows Server OS, SQL Server), and more personal computing (Windows Client, Xbox, Bing search, display advertising, and Surface laptops, tablets, and desktops).
Market cap 2.8T
UNRATE
UNRATE
Who Moves First
MSFT leads UNRATE by 6 months
MSFT tends to move before UNRATE.
Best correlation after shifting: +0.743 (13 shifts scanned)
Stability
Rolling Correlation
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
Correlation by Market Regime
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-0.000
7 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-0.558
5 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-0.456
23 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
R-Squared
0.8%
Share of variance in one series explained by the other.
Trend Agreement
47.7%
How often both series moved in the same direction period-to-period.
Overlap Quality
59
Thin shared window — 59 usable pairs.
Significance
n.s.
95% CI: [-0.173, 0.336]
Time Series
Rebased to 100
Scatter
XY Regression
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline Summary
59 paired observations survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,254
938
Normalized
1,254
938
Prepared
61
938
Aligned
59
59
Invalid removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
881
A: 2 / B: 879
Series A
Microsoft Corp
MSFT
Market cap 2.8T
Stock · 1,254 raw → 61 prepared
Series B
UNRATE
FRED · 938 raw → 938 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0006
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
3.8641
Linear regression intercept.
Related Extremes
Highest and Lowest Correlated
Saved 4 hours ago · ID: stock-msft-vs-fred-unrate-monthly-20260408-c9of8w