Correlation Analysis
Microsoft Corp vs PCEC96
MSFT vs PCEC96
+0.900
Very strong positive
When one moves up, the other tends to follow.
Microsoft Corp
↗MSFT
Microsoft develops and licenses consumer and enterprise software. It is known for its Windows operating systems and Office productivity suite. The company is organized into three equally sized broad segments: productivity and business processes (legacy Microsoft Office, cloud-based Office 365, Exchange, SharePoint, Skype, LinkedIn, Dynamics), intelligence cloud (infrastructure- and platform-as-a-service offerings Azure, Windows Server OS, SQL Server), and more personal computing (Windows Client, Xbox, Bing search, display advertising, and Surface laptops, tablets, and desktops).
Market cap 2.8T
PCEC96
PCEC96
Time Series
Relative Performance
Who Moves First
in sync
MSFT and PCEC96 tend to move at the same time.
After testing 13 timing shifts, the strongest relationship was +0.900 (they moved in the same direction).
Stability
Rolling Correlation
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
Correlation by Market Regime
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+0.187
17 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
2 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-0.369
16 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
R-Squared
80.9%
Share of variance in one series explained by the other.
Trend Agreement
54.4%
How often both series moved in the same direction period-to-period.
Overlap Quality
58
Thin shared window — 58 usable pairs.
Significance
p < 0.001
95% CI: [0.835, 0.940]
Scatter
XY Regression
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline Summary
58 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,254
229
Normalized
1,254
229
Prepared
61
229
Aligned
58
58
Invalid removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
174
A: 3 / B: 171
Series A
Microsoft Corp
MSFT
Market cap 2.8T
Stock · 1,254 raw → 61 prepared
Series B
PCEC96
FRED · 229 raw → 229 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
6.1110
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
13560.1770
Linear regression intercept.
Related Extremes
Highest and Lowest Correlated
Saved 6 hours ago · ID: stock-msft-vs-fred-pcec96-monthly-20260408-ua9wny