Correlation Analysis
Mastercard Incorporated vs Watsco, Inc.
MA vs WSO
+0.778
Strong positive
When one moves up, the other tends to follow.
Mastercard Incorporated
↗MA
Mastercard is the second-largest payment processor in the world, having processed close to $11 trillion in volume during 2025. Mastercard operates in over 200 countries and processes transactions in over 150 currencies.
Market cap 447.2B
Watsco, Inc.
↗WSO
Watsco is the largest HVAC and refrigeration products distributor in North America with approximately 13% market share. The company primarily operates in the United States (90% of revenue) with significant exposure in the Sunbelt states. Watsco also has operations in Canada, Latin America, and the Caribbean. The company's customer base comprises more than 120,000 dealers and contractors serving the replacement and new-construction HVAC/R markets for residential and light-commercial applications. As much as 20% of residential HVAC units are distributed through Watsco in any given year. Revenue is approximately 75%-80% residential HVAC and 20%-25% commercial, with relatively small exposure to more complex "applied" solutions.
Market cap 15.4B · 7,050 employees
Time Series
Relative Performance
Who Moves First
WSO leads MA by 6 days
WSO tends to move before MA.
After testing 13 timing shifts, the strongest relationship was +0.784 (they moved in the same direction).
Do They Crash Together?
Correlation by Market Regime
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+0.678
9 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-0.609
6 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-0.690
20 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
R-Squared
60.5%
Share of variance in one series explained by the other.
Trend Agreement
64.2%
How often both series moved in the same direction period-to-period.
Overlap Quality
1,254
Deep shared window — 1,254 usable pairs.
Significance
p < 0.001
95% CI: [0.755, 0.799]
Scatter
XY Regression
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline Summary
1,254 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,254
1,254
Normalized
1,254
1,254
Prepared
1,254
1,254
Aligned
1,254
1,254
Invalid removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Series A
Mastercard Incorporated
MA
Market cap 447.2B
Stock · 1,254 raw → 1,254 prepared
Series B
Watsco, Inc.
WSO
Market cap 15.4B · 7,050 employees
Stock · 1,254 raw → 1,254 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
48
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.7612
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
36.2820
Linear regression intercept.
Related Extremes
Highest and Lowest Correlated
Saved 6 hours ago · ID: stock-ma-vs-stock-wso-daily