Correlation Analysis
Mastercard Incorporated vs Vistra Corp.
MA vs VST
+0.940
Very strong positive
When one moves up, the other tends to follow.
Mastercard Incorporated
↗MA
Mastercard is the second-largest payment processor in the world, having processed close to $11 trillion in volume during 2025. Mastercard operates in over 200 countries and processes transactions in over 150 currencies.
Market cap 447.2B
Vistra Corp.
↗VST
Vistra Corp. is one of the largest power producers and retail energy providers in the USA. It owns 44 gigawatts of generation capacity, including natural gas (27 GW), nuclear (6.5 GW), coal (8.7 GW), and solar and battery storage (1.4 GW). The Cogentrix acquisition will add 5.5 GW of gas generation. Vistra's retail electricity business serves 5 million customers in 20 states, including almost a third of all Texas electricity consumers. Vistra emerged from the Energy Future Holdings bankruptcy as a stand-alone entity in 2016.
Market cap 51.3B · 6,390 employees
Time Series
Relative Performance
Who Moves First
MA leads VST by 6 days
MA tends to move before VST.
After testing 13 timing shifts, the strongest relationship was +0.943 (they moved in the same direction).
Do They Crash Together?
Correlation by Market Regime
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+0.563
14 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+0.802
8 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-0.497
13 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
R-Squared
88.4%
Share of variance in one series explained by the other.
Trend Agreement
57.1%
How often both series moved in the same direction period-to-period.
Overlap Quality
1,254
Deep shared window — 1,254 usable pairs.
Significance
p < 0.001
95% CI: [0.933, 0.946]
Scatter
XY Regression
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline Summary
1,254 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,254
1,254
Normalized
1,254
1,254
Prepared
1,254
1,254
Aligned
1,254
1,254
Invalid removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Series A
Mastercard Incorporated
MA
Market cap 447.2B
Stock · 1,254 raw → 1,254 prepared
Series B
Vistra Corp.
VST
Market cap 51.3B · 6,390 employees
Stock · 1,254 raw → 1,254 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
69
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.6985
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-228.5867
Linear regression intercept.
Related Extremes
Highest and Lowest Correlated
Saved 5 hours ago · ID: stock-ma-vs-stock-vst-daily