Correlation Analysis
Mastercard Incorporated vs PayPal Holdings, Inc. Common Stock
MA vs PYPL
-0.407
Moderate inverse
When one moves up, the other tends to move down.
Mastercard Incorporated
↗MA
Mastercard is the second-largest payment processor in the world, having processed close to $11 trillion in volume during 2025. Mastercard operates in over 200 countries and processes transactions in over 150 currencies.
Market cap 447.2B
PayPal Holdings, Inc. Common Stock
↗PYPL
PayPal was spun off from eBay in 2015 and provides electronic payment solutions to merchants and consumers, with a focus on online transactions. The company had 434 million active accounts at the end of 2024. The company also owns Venmo, a person-to-person payment platform.
Market cap 41.9B · 23,800 employees
Time Series
Relative Performance
Who Moves First
PYPL leads MA by 6 days
PYPL tends to move before MA.
After testing 13 timing shifts, the strongest relationship was -0.413 (they moved in opposite directions).
Do They Crash Together?
Correlation by Market Regime
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-0.060
9 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-0.032
12 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-0.384
14 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
R-Squared
16.6%
Share of variance in one series explained by the other.
Trend Agreement
66.7%
How often both series moved in the same direction period-to-period.
Overlap Quality
1,254
Deep shared window — 1,254 usable pairs.
Significance
p < 0.001
95% CI: [-0.452, -0.360]
Scatter
XY Regression
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline Summary
1,254 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,254
1,254
Normalized
1,254
1,254
Prepared
1,254
1,254
Aligned
1,254
1,254
Invalid removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Series A
Mastercard Incorporated
MA
Market cap 447.2B
Stock · 1,254 raw → 1,254 prepared
Series B
PayPal Holdings, Inc. Common Stock
PYPL
Market cap 41.9B · 23,800 employees
Stock · 1,254 raw → 1,254 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
7
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.3237
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
240.8438
Linear regression intercept.
Related Extremes
Highest and Lowest Correlated
MA
Mastercard Incorporated
Highest
+0.987
VISA Inc.
V · 1,254 data points
Lowest
-0.898
United Parcel Service, Inc. Class B
UPS · 1,254 data points
PYPL
PayPal Holdings, Inc. Common Stock
Highest
-0.013
Amazon.Com Inc
AMZN · 1,254 data points
Lowest
-0.854
Exxon Mobil Corporation
XOM · 1,254 data points
Saved 5 hours ago · ID: stock-ma-vs-stock-pypl-daily