Correlation Analysis
Intercontinental Exchange Inc. vs Mastercard Incorporated
ICE vs MA
+0.911
Very strong positive
When one moves up, the other tends to follow.
Intercontinental Exchange Inc.
↗ICE
Intercontinental Exchange is a vertically integrated operator of financial exchanges and provides ancillary data products. Though the company is probably best known for its ownership of the New York Stock Exchange, which it acquired in 2013, ICE operates a large derivatives exchange, too. The company's largest commodity futures product is the ICE Brent crude futures contract. In addition to the exchanges business, which is about 54% of net revenue, Intercontinental Exchange has used a series of acquisitions to create its mortgage technology business (22% of net revenue) and fixed-income and data-services segment (24% of net revenue).
Market cap 94.2B · 12,844 employees
Mastercard Incorporated
↗MA
Mastercard is the second-largest payment processor in the world, having processed close to $11 trillion in volume during 2025. Mastercard operates in over 200 countries and processes transactions in over 150 currencies.
Market cap 447.2B
Time Series
Relative Performance
Who Moves First
in sync
ICE and MA tend to move at the same time.
After testing 13 timing shifts, the strongest relationship was +0.911 (they moved in the same direction).
Do They Crash Together?
Correlation by Market Regime
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+0.703
13 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-0.062
11 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-0.766
11 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
R-Squared
82.9%
Share of variance in one series explained by the other.
Trend Agreement
68.0%
How often both series moved in the same direction period-to-period.
Overlap Quality
1,254
Deep shared window — 1,254 usable pairs.
Significance
p < 0.001
95% CI: [0.901, 0.920]
Scatter
XY Regression
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline Summary
1,254 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,254
1,254
Normalized
1,254
1,254
Prepared
1,254
1,254
Aligned
1,254
1,254
Invalid removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Series A
Intercontinental Exchange Inc.
ICE
Market cap 94.2B · 12,844 employees
Stock · 1,254 raw → 1,254 prepared
Series B
Mastercard Incorporated
MA
Market cap 447.2B
Stock · 1,254 raw → 1,254 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
19
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
3.0150
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
31.3686
Linear regression intercept.
Related Extremes
Highest and Lowest Correlated
ICE
Intercontinental Exchange Inc.
Highest
+0.928
NetFlix Inc
NFLX · 1,254 data points
Lowest
+0.188
Johnson & Johnson
JNJ · 1,254 data points
Saved 9 hours ago · ID: stock-ice-vs-stock-ma-daily