Correlation Analysis
Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF vs Exxon Mobil Corporation
GBTC vs XOM
+0.367
Light positive
When one moves up, the other tends to follow.
Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF
GBTC
Exxon Mobil Corporation
↗XOM
ExxonMobil is an integrated oil and gas company that explores for, produces, and refines oil worldwide. In 2025, it produced 3.3 million barrels of liquids and 8.4 billion cubic feet of natural gas per day. At the end of 2024, reserves were 19.9 billion barrels of oil equivalent, 69% of which were liquids. The company is one of the world's largest refiners, with a total global refining capacity of 4.3 million barrels of oil per day, and is one of the world's largest manufacturers of commodity and specialty chemicals.
Market cap 680.7B
Time Series
Relative Performance
Who Moves First
GBTC leads XOM by 6 days
GBTC tends to move before XOM.
After testing 13 timing shifts, the strongest relationship was +0.372 (they moved in the same direction).
Do They Crash Together?
Correlation by Market Regime
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-0.187
12 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-0.073
6 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-0.620
17 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
R-Squared
13.5%
Share of variance in one series explained by the other.
Trend Agreement
53.9%
How often both series moved in the same direction period-to-period.
Overlap Quality
1,066
Deep shared window — 1,066 usable pairs.
Significance
p < 0.001
95% CI: [0.314, 0.418]
Scatter
XY Regression
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline Summary
1,066 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,066
1,254
Normalized
1,066
1,254
Prepared
1,066
1,254
Aligned
1,066
1,066
Invalid removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
188
A: 0 / B: 188
Series A
Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF
GBTC
Stock · 1,066 raw → 1,066 prepared
Series B
Exxon Mobil Corporation
XOM
Market cap 680.7B
Stock · 1,254 raw → 1,254 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
25
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.2065
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
99.5296
Linear regression intercept.
Related Extremes
Highest and Lowest Correlated
GBTC
Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF
Highest
+0.950
NetFlix Inc
NFLX · 1,066 data points
Lowest
+0.075
Johnson & Johnson
JNJ · 1,066 data points
Saved 9 hours ago · ID: stock-gbtc-vs-stock-xom-daily