Correlation Analysis
Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF vs Mastercard Incorporated
GBTC vs MA
+0.944
Very strong positive
When one moves up, the other tends to follow.
Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF
GBTC
Mastercard Incorporated
↗MA
Mastercard is the second-largest payment processor in the world, having processed close to $11 trillion in volume during 2025. Mastercard operates in over 200 countries and processes transactions in over 150 currencies.
Market cap 447.2B
Time Series
Relative Performance
Who Moves First
in sync
GBTC and MA tend to move at the same time.
After testing 13 timing shifts, the strongest relationship was +0.944 (they moved in the same direction).
Do They Crash Together?
Correlation by Market Regime
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+0.309
13 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+0.253
8 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-0.865
14 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
R-Squared
89.1%
Share of variance in one series explained by the other.
Trend Agreement
57.3%
How often both series moved in the same direction period-to-period.
Overlap Quality
1,066
Deep shared window — 1,066 usable pairs.
Significance
p < 0.001
95% CI: [0.937, 0.950]
Scatter
XY Regression
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline Summary
1,066 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,066
1,254
Normalized
1,066
1,254
Prepared
1,066
1,254
Aligned
1,066
1,066
Invalid removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
188
A: 0 / B: 188
Series A
Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF
GBTC
Stock · 1,066 raw → 1,066 prepared
Series B
Mastercard Incorporated
MA
Market cap 447.2B
Stock · 1,254 raw → 1,254 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
13
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
3.0365
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
310.4574
Linear regression intercept.
Related Extremes
Highest and Lowest Correlated
Saved 6 hours ago · ID: stock-gbtc-vs-stock-ma-daily