Correlation Analysis
First Citizens BancShares Inc vs Mastercard Incorporated
FCNCA vs MA
+0.916
Very strong positive
When one moves up, the other tends to follow.
First Citizens BancShares Inc
↗FCNCA
First Citizens BancShares Inc. is a Raleigh, N.C.-based financial holding company operating through its subsidiary, First-Citizens Bank & Trust Company. It provides comprehensive retail banking, commercial lending, leasing, and wealth management services via a nationwide branch network and digital platforms. In 2023 acquisition of Silicon Valley Bank, it also specializes in banking for tech, healthcare, and innovation firms.
Market cap 22.8B · 18,141 employees
Mastercard Incorporated
↗MA
Mastercard is the second-largest payment processor in the world, having processed close to $11 trillion in volume during 2025. Mastercard operates in over 200 countries and processes transactions in over 150 currencies.
Market cap 447.2B
Time Series
Relative Performance
Who Moves First
FCNCA leads MA by 2 days
FCNCA tends to move before MA.
After testing 13 timing shifts, the strongest relationship was +0.916 (they moved in the same direction).
Do They Crash Together?
Correlation by Market Regime
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+0.078
14 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+0.921
7 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-0.699
14 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
R-Squared
83.9%
Share of variance in one series explained by the other.
Trend Agreement
62.3%
How often both series moved in the same direction period-to-period.
Overlap Quality
1,254
Deep shared window — 1,254 usable pairs.
Significance
p < 0.001
95% CI: [0.907, 0.925]
Scatter
XY Regression
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline Summary
1,254 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,254
1,254
Normalized
1,254
1,254
Prepared
1,254
1,254
Aligned
1,254
1,254
Invalid removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Series A
First Citizens BancShares Inc
FCNCA
Market cap 22.8B · 18,141 employees
Stock · 1,254 raw → 1,254 prepared
Series B
Mastercard Incorporated
MA
Market cap 447.2B
Stock · 1,254 raw → 1,254 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
13
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.1489
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
230.0200
Linear regression intercept.
Related Extremes
Highest and Lowest Correlated
FCNCA
First Citizens BancShares Inc
Highest
+0.936
Eli Lilly & Co.
LLY · 1,254 data points
Lowest
+0.092
Johnson & Johnson
JNJ · 1,254 data points
Saved 6 hours ago · ID: stock-fcnca-vs-stock-ma-daily