Correlation Analysis
Circle Internet Group, Inc. vs Walmart Inc. Common Stock
CRCL vs WMT
-0.697
Strong inverse
When one moves up, the other tends to move down.
Circle Internet Group, Inc.
↗CRCL
Circle Internet Group Inc is a financial technology firm engaged in digital currencies and public blockchains for payments, commerce, and financial applications. The company's platform is a full-stack, internet financial platform business, organized around three pillars: Arc Blockchain and Developer Infrastructure, Circle Digital Assets and Services, and Circle Applications.
Market cap 22.8B · 1,100 employees
Walmart Inc. Common Stock
↗WMT
Since its founding in 1962, Walmart has become the world's largest retailer, operating over 10,700 stores globally (including 4,600 namesake locations on its home turf and another 600 Sam's Club outlets) and growing its e-commerce presence, attracting 270 million customers weekly. In aggregate, the firm posted more than $680 billion in fiscal 2025 sales. Its core operations span three reporting segments: Walmart US (68% of fiscal 2025 sales), Walmart International (18%), and Sam's Club (14%). Within the US, nearly 60% of its $465 billion in fiscal 2025 revenue came from its grocery offerings, with another quarter from general merchandise. Internationally, Walmart's operations are concentrated in Mexico, though it also has budding exposure to India.
Market cap 1T
Time Series
Relative Performance
Who Moves First
CRCL leads WMT by 6 days
CRCL tends to move before WMT.
After testing 13 timing shifts, the strongest relationship was -0.727 (they moved in opposite directions).
Do They Crash Together?
Correlation by Market Regime
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-0.068
8 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-0.509
10 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-0.560
17 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
R-Squared
48.6%
Share of variance in one series explained by the other.
Trend Agreement
46.9%
How often both series moved in the same direction period-to-period.
Overlap Quality
210
Usable shared window — 210 usable pairs.
Significance
p < 0.001
95% CI: [-0.761, -0.621]
Scatter
XY Regression
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline Summary
210 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
210
1,254
Normalized
210
1,254
Prepared
210
1,254
Aligned
210
210
Invalid removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,044
A: 0 / B: 1044
Series A
Circle Internet Group, Inc.
CRCL
Market cap 22.8B · 1,100 employees
Stock · 210 raw → 210 prepared
Series B
Walmart Inc. Common Stock
WMT
Market cap 1T
Stock · 1,254 raw → 1,254 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
10
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.1706
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
129.2605
Linear regression intercept.
Related Extremes
Highest and Lowest Correlated
CRCL
Circle Internet Group, Inc.
Highest
+0.767
NetFlix Inc
NFLX · 210 data points
Lowest
-0.761
Eli Lilly & Co.
LLY · 210 data points
Saved 6 hours ago · ID: stock-crcl-vs-stock-wmt-daily