Correlation Analysis
Circle Internet Group, Inc. vs Mastercard Incorporated
CRCL vs MA
+0.285
Light positive
When one moves up, the other tends to follow.
Circle Internet Group, Inc.
↗CRCL
Circle Internet Group Inc is a financial technology firm engaged in digital currencies and public blockchains for payments, commerce, and financial applications. The company's platform is a full-stack, internet financial platform business, organized around three pillars: Arc Blockchain and Developer Infrastructure, Circle Digital Assets and Services, and Circle Applications.
Market cap 22.8B · 1,100 employees
Mastercard Incorporated
↗MA
Mastercard is the second-largest payment processor in the world, having processed close to $11 trillion in volume during 2025. Mastercard operates in over 200 countries and processes transactions in over 150 currencies.
Market cap 447.2B
Time Series
Relative Performance
Who Moves First
CRCL leads MA by 6 days
CRCL tends to move before MA.
After testing 13 timing shifts, the strongest relationship was +0.362 (they moved in the same direction).
Do They Crash Together?
Correlation by Market Regime
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+0.421
8 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-0.611
11 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-0.454
16 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
R-Squared
8.1%
Share of variance in one series explained by the other.
Trend Agreement
54.8%
How often both series moved in the same direction period-to-period.
Overlap Quality
210
Usable shared window — 210 usable pairs.
Significance
p < 0.001
95% CI: [0.155, 0.405]
Scatter
XY Regression
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline Summary
210 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
210
1,254
Normalized
210
1,254
Prepared
210
1,254
Aligned
210
210
Invalid removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,044
A: 0 / B: 1044
Series A
Circle Internet Group, Inc.
CRCL
Market cap 22.8B · 1,100 employees
Stock · 210 raw → 210 prepared
Series B
Mastercard Incorporated
MA
Market cap 447.2B
Stock · 1,254 raw → 1,254 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
11
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.1746
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
532.7512
Linear regression intercept.
Related Extremes
Highest and Lowest Correlated
Saved 7 hours ago · ID: stock-crcl-vs-stock-ma-daily