Correlation Analysis
Costco Wholesale Corp vs Tractor Supply Co
COST vs TSCO
+0.869
Very strong positive
When one moves up, the other tends to follow.
Costco Wholesale Corp
↗COST
Founded in 1983, Costco Wholesale now operates a global chain of membership-based warehouse clubs, delivering high-quality goods and services at consistently low prices. As of its most recent fiscal year, Costco operated approximately 910 warehouses, serving more than 80 million members across its three geographic segments: Costco US (approximately 73% of total revenue), Costco Canada (13%), and Costco International (14%).Costco's core value proposition—quality products at unbeatable prices—has yielded consistently strong member renewal rates (93% in the US and Canada and nearly 90% internationally). About 55% of Costco's fiscal 2025 revenue came from its grocery offerings, and another 25% from general merchandise.
Market cap 451.9B
Tractor Supply Co
↗TSCO
Tractor Supply is the largest operator of retail farm and ranch stores in the United States. The company targets recreational farmers and ranchers and has little exposure to commercial and industrial farm operations. Currently, the company operates 2,395 of its namesake banners in 49 states, along with 207 Petsense by Tractor Supply stores. Stores are generally concentrated in rural communities rather than urban and suburban areas. In fiscal 2025, revenue consisted primarily of livestock, equine & agriculture (around 30%), companion animal (25%), and seasonal & recreation (around 25%).
Market cap 23.9B · 52,000 employees
Time Series
Relative Performance
Who Moves First
TSCO leads COST by 6 days
TSCO tends to move before COST.
After testing 13 timing shifts, the strongest relationship was +0.870 (they moved in the same direction).
Do They Crash Together?
Correlation by Market Regime
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+0.510
17 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+0.564
9 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-0.575
9 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
R-Squared
75.5%
Share of variance in one series explained by the other.
Trend Agreement
64.2%
How often both series moved in the same direction period-to-period.
Overlap Quality
1,254
Deep shared window — 1,254 usable pairs.
Significance
p < 0.001
95% CI: [0.855, 0.882]
Scatter
XY Regression
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline Summary
1,254 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,254
1,254
Normalized
1,254
1,254
Prepared
1,254
1,254
Aligned
1,254
1,254
Invalid removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Series A
Costco Wholesale Corp
COST
Market cap 451.9B
Stock · 1,254 raw → 1,254 prepared
Series B
Tractor Supply Co
TSCO
Market cap 23.9B · 52,000 employees
Stock · 1,254 raw → 1,254 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
5
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0276
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
28.3114
Linear regression intercept.
Related Extremes
Highest and Lowest Correlated
Saved 4 hours ago · ID: stock-cost-vs-stock-tsco-daily