Correlation Analysis
Costco Wholesale Corp vs Lennox International Inc.
COST vs LII
+0.911
Very strong positive
When one moves up, the other tends to follow.
Costco Wholesale Corp
↗COST
Founded in 1983, Costco Wholesale now operates a global chain of membership-based warehouse clubs, delivering high-quality goods and services at consistently low prices. As of its most recent fiscal year, Costco operated approximately 910 warehouses, serving more than 80 million members across its three geographic segments: Costco US (approximately 73% of total revenue), Costco Canada (13%), and Costco International (14%).Costco's core value proposition—quality products at unbeatable prices—has yielded consistently strong member renewal rates (93% in the US and Canada and nearly 90% internationally). About 55% of Costco's fiscal 2025 revenue came from its grocery offerings, and another 25% from general merchandise.
Market cap 451.9B
Lennox International Inc.
↗LII
Lennox International manufacturers and distributes heating, ventilating, air conditioning, and refrigeration products for the North American replacement (75% of sales) and new construction (25% of sales) markets. Residential HVAC (home comfort solutions) accounted for 67% of sales and commercial HVAC (building climate solutions) accounted for the remaining 33% of sales. To be clear, Lennox's commercial exposure is what its peers refer to as "residential and light commercial," lacks the scale and complexity of what is referred to as an "applied" solution. The company goes to market with multiple brands, but Lennox is the company's flagship HVAC brand.
Market cap 15.8B · 12,900 employees
Time Series
Relative Performance
Who Moves First
LII leads COST by 6 days
LII tends to move before COST.
After testing 13 timing shifts, the strongest relationship was +0.915 (they moved in the same direction).
Do They Crash Together?
Correlation by Market Regime
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+0.001
17 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+0.797
7 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-0.341
11 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
R-Squared
82.9%
Share of variance in one series explained by the other.
Trend Agreement
64.2%
How often both series moved in the same direction period-to-period.
Overlap Quality
1,254
Deep shared window — 1,254 usable pairs.
Significance
p < 0.001
95% CI: [0.901, 0.920]
Scatter
XY Regression
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline Summary
1,254 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,254
1,254
Normalized
1,254
1,254
Prepared
1,254
1,254
Aligned
1,254
1,254
Invalid removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Series A
Costco Wholesale Corp
COST
Market cap 451.9B
Stock · 1,254 raw → 1,254 prepared
Series B
Lennox International Inc.
LII
Market cap 15.8B · 12,900 employees
Stock · 1,254 raw → 1,254 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
39
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.5860
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
8.3143
Linear regression intercept.
Related Extremes
Highest and Lowest Correlated
Saved 7 hours ago · ID: stock-cost-vs-stock-lii-daily