Correlation Analysis
Costco Wholesale Corp vs The Estee Lauder Companies Inc. Class A
COST vs EL
-0.879
Very strong inverse
When one moves up, the other tends to move down.
Costco Wholesale Corp
↗COST
Founded in 1983, Costco Wholesale now operates a global chain of membership-based warehouse clubs, delivering high-quality goods and services at consistently low prices. As of its most recent fiscal year, Costco operated approximately 910 warehouses, serving more than 80 million members across its three geographic segments: Costco US (approximately 73% of total revenue), Costco Canada (13%), and Costco International (14%).Costco's core value proposition—quality products at unbeatable prices—has yielded consistently strong member renewal rates (93% in the US and Canada and nearly 90% internationally). About 55% of Costco's fiscal 2025 revenue came from its grocery offerings, and another 25% from general merchandise.
Market cap 451.9B
The Estee Lauder Companies Inc. Class A
↗EL
Estée Lauder is a leader in the global prestige beauty market, participating across skin care (49% of fiscal 2025 sales), makeup (29%), fragrance (17%), and hair care and others (5%). Top-selling brands include Estée Lauder, Clinique, M.A.C, La Mer, Jo Malone London, Aveda, Bobbi Brown, and Origins. The firm operates in more than 150 countries, generating 31% of revenue from the Americas, 37% from Europe, the Middle East and Africa (including travel retail), and 32% from Asia-Pacific. Estée Lauder sells its products through department stores, travel retail, specialty multibrand beauty stores, brand-dedicated freestanding stores, e-commerce, salons/spas, and perfumeries.
Market cap 25.7B · 57,000 employees
Time Series
Relative Performance
Who Moves First
EL leads COST by 6 days
EL tends to move before COST.
After testing 13 timing shifts, the strongest relationship was -0.881 (they moved in opposite directions).
Do They Crash Together?
Correlation by Market Regime
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+0.405
9 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-0.299
6 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-0.408
20 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
R-Squared
77.2%
Share of variance in one series explained by the other.
Trend Agreement
59.0%
How often both series moved in the same direction period-to-period.
Overlap Quality
1,254
Deep shared window — 1,254 usable pairs.
Significance
p < 0.001
95% CI: [-0.891, -0.866]
Scatter
XY Regression
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline Summary
1,254 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,254
1,254
Normalized
1,254
1,254
Prepared
1,254
1,254
Aligned
1,254
1,254
Invalid removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Series A
Costco Wholesale Corp
COST
Market cap 451.9B
Stock · 1,254 raw → 1,254 prepared
Series B
The Estee Lauder Companies Inc. Class A
EL
Market cap 25.7B · 57,000 employees
Stock · 1,254 raw → 1,254 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.3798
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
440.6327
Linear regression intercept.
Related Extremes
Highest and Lowest Correlated
COST
Costco Wholesale Corp
Highest
+0.977
Republic Services Inc.
RSG · 1,254 data points
Lowest
-0.912
Fiserv, Inc. Common Stock
FISV · 644 data points
EL
The Estee Lauder Companies Inc. Class A
Highest
-0.029
Johnson & Johnson
JNJ · 1,254 data points
Lowest
-0.912
Eli Lilly & Co.
LLY · 1,254 data points
Saved 6 hours ago · ID: stock-cost-vs-stock-el-daily