Correlation Analysis
Costco Wholesale Corp vs Circle Internet Group, Inc.
COST vs CRCL
+0.194
Weak positive
When one moves up, the other tends to follow.
Costco Wholesale Corp
↗COST
Founded in 1983, Costco Wholesale now operates a global chain of membership-based warehouse clubs, delivering high-quality goods and services at consistently low prices. As of its most recent fiscal year, Costco operated approximately 910 warehouses, serving more than 80 million members across its three geographic segments: Costco US (approximately 73% of total revenue), Costco Canada (13%), and Costco International (14%).Costco's core value proposition—quality products at unbeatable prices—has yielded consistently strong member renewal rates (93% in the US and Canada and nearly 90% internationally). About 55% of Costco's fiscal 2025 revenue came from its grocery offerings, and another 25% from general merchandise.
Market cap 451.9B
Circle Internet Group, Inc.
↗CRCL
Circle Internet Group Inc is a financial technology firm engaged in digital currencies and public blockchains for payments, commerce, and financial applications. The company's platform is a full-stack, internet financial platform business, organized around three pillars: Arc Blockchain and Developer Infrastructure, Circle Digital Assets and Services, and Circle Applications.
Market cap 22.8B · 1,100 employees
Time Series
Relative Performance
Who Moves First
COST leads CRCL by 6 days
COST tends to move before CRCL.
After testing 13 timing shifts, the strongest relationship was +0.357 (they moved in the same direction).
Do They Crash Together?
Correlation by Market Regime
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-0.675
6 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-0.235
10 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-0.581
19 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
R-Squared
3.8%
Share of variance in one series explained by the other.
Trend Agreement
45.9%
How often both series moved in the same direction period-to-period.
Overlap Quality
210
Usable shared window — 210 usable pairs.
Significance
p < 0.01
95% CI: [0.060, 0.321]
Scatter
XY Regression
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline Summary
210 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,254
210
Normalized
1,254
210
Prepared
1,254
210
Aligned
210
210
Invalid removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,044
A: 1044 / B: 0
Series A
Costco Wholesale Corp
COST
Market cap 451.9B
Stock · 1,254 raw → 1,254 prepared
Series B
Circle Internet Group, Inc.
CRCL
Market cap 22.8B · 1,100 employees
Stock · 210 raw → 210 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
16
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.2107
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-81.0653
Linear regression intercept.
Related Extremes
Highest and Lowest Correlated
Saved 6 hours ago · ID: stock-cost-vs-stock-crcl-daily