Correlation Analysis
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. vs Mastercard Incorporated
CMG vs MA
+0.619
Moderate positive
When one moves up, the other tends to follow.
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.
↗CMG
Chipotle is a leading fast-casual, Mexican-inspired restaurant chain, generating $11.9 billion in sales across 3,983 company-operated US locations, 104 international units primarily in Canada and Europe, and 14 licensed stores largely operated in the Middle East at the end of 2025. The firm's revenue is primarily driven by food and beverage sales at its company-owned restaurants, supplemented by delivery fees generated through its first-party digital channels. Chipotle emphasizes ingredients with no artificial flavors and utilizes an efficient, assembly line service model to serve mainly customizable burritos, bowls, salads, quesadillas, and tacos.
Market cap 43.6B · 130,301 employees
Mastercard Incorporated
↗MA
Mastercard is the second-largest payment processor in the world, having processed close to $11 trillion in volume during 2025. Mastercard operates in over 200 countries and processes transactions in over 150 currencies.
Market cap 447.2B
Time Series
Relative Performance
Who Moves First
CMG leads MA by 6 days
CMG tends to move before MA.
After testing 13 timing shifts, the strongest relationship was +0.626 (they moved in the same direction).
Do They Crash Together?
Correlation by Market Regime
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-0.184
12 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+0.473
10 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-0.613
13 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
R-Squared
38.3%
Share of variance in one series explained by the other.
Trend Agreement
64.0%
How often both series moved in the same direction period-to-period.
Overlap Quality
1,254
Deep shared window — 1,254 usable pairs.
Significance
p < 0.001
95% CI: [0.584, 0.652]
Scatter
XY Regression
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline
Data quality details
Pipeline Summary
1,254 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,254
1,254
Normalized
1,254
1,254
Prepared
1,254
1,254
Aligned
1,254
1,254
Invalid removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Series A
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.
CMG
Market cap 43.6B · 130,301 employees
Stock · 1,254 raw → 1,254 prepared
Series B
Mastercard Incorporated
MA
Market cap 447.2B
Stock · 1,254 raw → 1,254 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
19
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
4.7963
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
234.8572
Linear regression intercept.
Related Extremes
Highest and Lowest Correlated
Saved 7 hours ago · ID: stock-cmg-vs-stock-ma-daily